A Vision of the Future
In the not too distant future our world will look very different from today. Because of imminent and significant technological innovations in computers, machine intelligence, biotechnology and robotics, there will be considerably less need for human labor. Universal adoption of cheap home fabrication technologies (such as 3-D printers) will remove the need to centrally manufacture or buy consumer items – if you can imagine it, you can build it, for little more than the cost of the base raw materials. These changes will be enabled and enhanced by breakthroughs in power generation, transmission and storage, making energy plentiful, clean and effectively free. All this will change the very fabric of society as we know it in the biggest sea change since the industrial revolution.
Such quantum changes always cause considerable 'creative destruction' as old technologies, practices, institutions and ideas are overtaken by new, more powerful and more relevant ones. But this also creates opportunities to radically and fundamentally move society towards any one of a multitude of different outcomes. The direction in which our society changes depends entirely on us; in particular our collective desire to direct those changes for the benefit of the many, not just the few.
In the 18th Century the Industrial Revolution spawned a series of huge economic and social changes; in the rising industrial nations over several decades it drove the largest-ever increase in living standards in their history. However it also caused mass migrations from rural areas to cities, exploitation of labor and the environment, the advent of workhouses and robber barons, and extremes of immense wealth and abject poverty. Similarly, this coming technological and social revolution could in its worst manifestation cause large-scale unemployment and poverty, huge wealth inequalities, global environmental destruction, mass extinctions of animal and plant species, and widespread misery, starvation and death for many human beings.
The power to avoid this fate and create a better outcome lies in our hands; however the alternative paths are not easy and will require enormous collective will. A combination of natural societal entropy and inertia and the entrenched nature of our established power systems and institutions, coupled with the more selfish aspects of human nature are highly likely (without additional impetus) to drive us almost inevitably to a disturbingly inharmonious and imbalanced future that may take generations to correct – much as happened with the Industrial Revolution.
This negative future vision is certainly not inescapable, though it certainly won’t be trivial to avoid. Even if we envision an alternative, more idealized society which these changes might create, making such a transformation happen will take concerted and deliberate action. However we must first suspend any cynical assumptions of the inevitability of human greed and selfishness; not to ignore them and cling to an unrealistic utopian vision of an unattainable paradise, but to allow us to offer a clear and contrasting alternative to the dystopian society that would otherwise surely arise.
In this essay I describe one such alternative future vision which is not only entirely possible, but for the vast mass of humanity would be highly desirable and preferable to both their current living situation and many likely future ones. Through clearly articulating and understanding the range of future possibilities and the probable long-term outcomes of the choices we are currently facing, collectively we can make those choices intentionally and intelligently to harness the benefits of the coming changes and shape a far better world for everyone. If we wish to create a better, more balanced and more egalitarian society we must quickly seize the opportunity that these changes are offering us before their outcomes are inevitable; the time for collective action to actively determine our future course is now.
Human labor
Because of vast increase in the efficiencies of mechanized labor,
the means of production (including food production) will become largely
automated and self-contained, requiring little or even no human
intervention. Whole industries,
including agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, clerical work and
many others will become largely or completely automated. Others, such as medicine or engineering will
change beyond all recognition, requiring humans only to provide some necessary advanced
technical or personal services that machines cannot (or should not) provide. Some industries (such as advertising or banking)
will become redundant and pretty much disappear completely.
It's likely that human effort will still be needed, at least for the foreseeable future – e.g. for decision-making, for advanced research and innovation, or for designing and engineering complex machines, androids and robotic systems (and the machines that build, manage and repair them). All creative endeavors, including the arts, will still be dominated by humans – although computer-generated art, literature, music and design will become commonplace (and sometimes even indistinguishable from their human-created equivalents). Because most people will not work full time, any tasks requiring regular or constant human attention will be shared among multiple individuals, in a way similar to job sharing today.
As one example, just imagine a simple visit to the dentist in this hypothetical future society. You tell your intelligent personal assistant (an android) that you need to see a dentist, and it contacts your nearest medical center to schedule it. If there's a treatment bay currently available a driverless car will arrive at your house within minutes and you'll be transported there. On arrival, a realistic humanoid android will greet you warmly (in your preferred language) and escort you to your treatment bay, where a medical droid will examine you, referring to your existing dental and medical records and cross-referencing a vast intelligent repository of medical knowledge about your condition, and perform (almost painlessly and discomfort-free) whatever dental treatment you need. You'll then be supplied any required medications and driven back home by another car. In most such situations, no other humans need be involved.
What will people do?
Human beings are creatures of habit. We are, to a large extent, indoctrinated by
our upbringing and educational system to conform to a narrow band of expectations
and activities which are most likely to make us productive and successful members
of a highly mechanized and industrialized society. Out of necessity and habit we typically get
up every day to work to feed ourselves and our families, and rarely give a
thought to the purpose of it all or what the alternatives might be.
But what if such work is no longer required of us or valuable to society – what will we do? Because of the coming wave of technological advances, the concept of work as we know it today will largely disappear. This could be viewed negatively, but in this scenario it will be a blessing and a huge liberation for humankind. No longer will humans be required to spend most of their waking hours laboring simply to survive and thrive, wasting their bodies or their minds in pointless drudgery. Instead, everyone will be supplied with most or all their lower-order Maslow's needs – safety, shelter, food, water, comfort, healthcare, education, information, entertainment, basic transportation, and more. This will free up the greatest minds of the human race to apply their most valuable skill – their intelligence – to questions of a higher order.
Citizens may still provide labor to fulfill the few manual tasks that are still necessary – which will also engender a sense of connection to the community and its shared resources. All able-bodied adult citizens will satisfy a minimum community service requirement each month, such tasks being "priced" according to the level of skill or training required and the degree of demand vs. supply (so the most highly skilled or least popular tasks will require the least number of service hours.) Either way, most citizens will only be required to work a few hours each month, leaving them (by our standards) a large amount of leisure time, to be devoted to their chosen vocation, ongoing education, entertainment, creative endeavors or recreation as they desire.
Of course, some people will naturally choose to use their leisure time pursuing careers in areas (such as engineering, design, science, craftsmanship or the arts) where they are particularly talented or that strongly interest them. People that choose to send their time exclusively on "unproductive" activities (as defined by their communities) will live in relative comfort but not thrive – unless they choose to also spend some of their time providing value to their communities.
Money and value
So how will "value" be defined in this
society? When labor is no longer the primary
driver of most people's worth, money as we know it will eventually and quite
naturally disappear. The value of each
citizen (and their opportunity to better themselves and improve their circumstances)
will instead be through a crowdsourced system of appreciation. What you choose to produce in your free time for
the benefit of the community will be valued in the form of "Pax" – almost
like an electronic tipping system, very similar to likes or recommends on
social media today. If you produce
something useful or valuable to others in any way (such as an informative news
article, a beautiful photograph, or an innovative new product), or if you invest
time in something that others want (e.g. a service or event), you'll be very likely
to receive more Pax from others.
In some ways Pax is similar to money, but its purpose is very different; people offer their time, wisdom creativity or expertise to a community and the community values it accordingly, using Pax to show their appreciation. Each person can give anyone else one Pax for a single specific contribution if they wish, but otherwise there is no limit of how much Pax each person can give to others (as with Social Media likes). Giving someone Pax costs you nothing but a moment of your time, and one gift of Pax is by itself largely insignificant. But many people giving someone Pax for their contribution is a form of mass appreciation, so if you consistently receive Pax by providing something of value to others, your status within the community over time will naturally increase. The amount of your accumulated Pax is always publicly visible online, and as you accumulate more of it you can expect and request benefits from the community in return – e.g. by moving to a nicer home or taking a pleasant vacation – depending what the community has to offer and what you want or need.
Politics and many leadership roles will still be needed, although without the pervasive influence of money, power will not be so highly concentrated in the hands of a few people (reducing incentives towards corruption and favoritism). In general, individuals with more Pax will be more respected and so may naturally gravitate towards leadership positions (or be encouraged to by their communities).
Humans will still need to make all the important decisions about how society is managed and organized, and major community decisions (including elections) will be democratic, based on instant electronic voting, so that such decisions will always reflect the wishes of the individual communities. Laws will be automatically and neutrally enforced by android police, but many of the laws we have today around property, money and power will be irrelevant and no longer exist. Only actions which explicitly harm another person or their property (or the community's) will be illegal. Although laws will be administered and enforced by androids, all legislation, judgments and punishments will be decided by humans.
Community
The concept of community becomes vitally important when
everyone is interdependent, not for their basic human needs, but for their
social, emotional and intellectual connection to others. So the concept of "community" extends
beyond local geographical communities (primarily your local city or county), to
extended communities across the world who share cultural, social, religious or other
beliefs, practices and values. The
Internet already makes it easy to find others to connect with, no matter where
you live or what you like to do. So for
example imagine if you'd written a book – in a worldwide population of
billions, you only need perhaps a few thousand people to read it, enjoy it, and
give you some Pax for it to be of 'value' to the community and for you to get
some tangible benefit from writing it (and perhaps the incentive to continue writing).
In this society the profit motive which drives capitalism also disappears. The currently accepted norm of creating a product or service, convincing others that they "need" it, then extracting an inflated value premium from providing it (by artificially protecting intellectual capital, exploiting raw materials or labor at below their intrinsic worth, ignoring externalized costs or charging excess rents on resources) becomes pointless, and will be judged negatively by the community. As individuals have their basic needs met and can make the everyday products they actually use effectively for free, there's no longer any consumers, and so no reason for a "business" to make and sell goods and services in the traditional sense. Innovation is still useful, valued and rewarded, but the motive instead becomes contributing to the community (and receiving appreciation in return, via Pax).
Communities will be infinitely flexible. Any two people could create a community for any purpose, and communities could be created online for particular projects or goals. In this way individuals could collectively start a "business" (or more accurately, a collective) to create anything that they believe would have value to the community. With no need for complex legal requirements or startup capital, any community can create anything they can collectively dream up, if it has enough perceived value to attract the talented people it needs to fulfill its mission.
For example, suppose you devised a brilliant new technology to allow cleaning bots to clean cars much more efficiently. You might create a design proposal for this technology, and publish it to a community of engineering experts (either locally or around the world) who would review it, recognize its value, perhaps make suggestions to improve it, then help you prototype and test it. Once its value was proven and deployed locally or worldwide, both you and your communities would then receive lots of Pax from many other communities and individuals for your ingenuity and effort. In this way, many of the incentives of capitalism to innovate and disseminate new ideas still exist, without the selfishness, exploitation, redundancy, monopolistic behaviors and externalized costs that are endemic today. We're already seeing the beginnings of such changes with the advent of the Internet, open source movements and socially-oriented businesses (such as Wikipedia or Craigslist).
There will also be a reduced value placed on personal property. Individuals will still own the personal items they need or want, but as consumer goods are effectively free and most resources are shared and managed by communities, people will come to value both practical and aesthetic contributions – such as hand-crafted personalized items – much more than just mass-produced 'things'. Everyone will still have a standard of living commensurate with their value to their community (as measured in Pax), so there will still be some personal material success to aspire to. But such success can only come with increasing age and by contributing to your communities, not by focusing on personal gain.
A corollary to this is that marketing and selling will also become largely redundant. Much as with an Internet search engine today, expressing your needs and desires to your intelligent personal assistant allows them to immediately offer you a variety of suitable choices from around the world, then quickly deliver or manufacture your selection on demand (you can still search or browse the whole world online for odd or unusual items, or design them yourself and receive Pax for your innovation!) In this paradigm the emphasis is placed on "buyers" searching for the things they want, rather than "sellers" persuading you to buy what they have (this is already happening today with the Internet). As a result, advertising will become irrelevant and the value of anything will be determined solely by the appreciation of different communities and individuals.
Wider social implications
This focus on community, along with the efficiencies of
automated food production, will vastly reduce or even effectively eliminate
hunger and poverty worldwide. Scientific
advances will make many diseases preventable or eminently curable, and any damaged
or diseased body parts will be replaceable due to advances in bioengineering. Humans won't be immortal – accidents and old
age can still bring death – but we'll be able to live longer, healthier and
more fulfilling lives than ever before.
In addition, because the disciplines of science and research are by their very nature collaborative efforts, this new paradigm of communities is perfectly suited to advancing our scientific understanding. As the foundation of technological innovation, scientific progress will also continue improving people's lives in many of the ways that it has already done over the last few centuries. With the focus on community and collaboration such progress will also naturally become more sustainable – rather than exploiting people and natural resources, humans will integrate with ecosystems in a much more balanced way. Instead of accelerating growth and competition leading to a constant spiral of increasing consumption, the symbiotic relationship between people in disparate communities around the world will spur a similar relationship with our environment.
Finally, the vast improvements in education, connection and community across geographical, linguistic and cultural borders will naturally create personal connections, understanding, and ultimately empathy and compassion for others in different circumstances. The existing factions (geographic, political, cultural, racial and religious) which have traditionally divided us will no longer be seen as significant or important; it's much harder to hate or dismiss someone when you share common experiences with them and understand their worldview. Eventually wars and violent conflict will come to be seen as pointless and destructive anachronisms from a dysfunctional phase of our evolution as a species.
The future
The society described here is collaborative, supportive and
community-oriented, and less hierarchical, selfish, competitive and
exploitative than our present one. It's
a culture that's more balanced between feminine and masculine energies than
masculine-dominated (consider, for example, the essential qualities we typically
demand of our leaders today and how that might shift in this new world). It's a society in which humanity's natural
tendencies of kindness and consideration, tolerance and trust, innovation and
creativity, and cooperation and connection are equally or more highly valued
and emphasized than those of strength, aggressiveness, drive and decisiveness –
much as in most traditional tribal cultures (or intelligent animal cultures) but
in a modern technological, highly industrialized and mechanized global context.
Our world is already moving inexorably towards many of these changes, whether we like them or not. However we can (and must) decide whether the resulting world we create will sustainably support the ideals and values we desire, or if it will become a corrupt, post-capitalist dystopia of exploitation, violence and destruction. Inaction is itself a choice, so we must act soon. We have the power to choose. Let us choose wisely.
posted by Trendar @ 8:26 AM
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